Hay Market Outlook: Spring 2026 to Winter 2027

Australia’s hay market is heading into one of its most interesting periods in years. Southern haymakers are having an exceptional season, while parts of the north are already dry, and all the major climate models are pointing to a very strong El Niño. So what does that mean for hay supply and prices over the next 12 months, and when is the right time to buy?

Feed Central’s Tim Ford shared the market team’s view in the latest Hay Market Report, which you can watch in full below. Here’s what buyers and sellers need to know.

El Niño is here

This isn’t a forecast any more. The Bureau of Meteorology says El Niño is firmly established, with further intensification likely during spring, and the event is expected to persist into autumn 2027.

In southern Queensland, the effects are already obvious. Winter wheat and barley crops have been hit, hay production is down, pastures are dry and bushfires have already occurred. As Tim put it, the region is on the edge of a really significant dry period.

A tale of two regions

While the north dries out, what Tim calls the “big hay belt” is having an exceptional season. That’s northern Victoria, southern NSW and across into South Australia.

Where paddocks aren’t waterlogged, crops are looking fantastic and a very significant hay crop is developing. Good growers in these areas are even building new sheds to hold it, because they know all hay always sells.

The catch is quality. Waterlogging, lodging and wet cutting conditions are real risks this spring, as Victorian grower Josh Lanyon explained on the Hay Matters podcast. Rain-damaged or late-cut hay tends to pull the whole market down, which is why tested, proven-quality hay will be worth its weight this season.

Why isn’t more hay selling?

Given how dry it is in parts of the country, you might expect hay to be flying out the door. It isn’t, at least not yet. Tim points to three reasons:

• A large cattle sell-off. Many producers have reduced stock numbers, so fewer mouths need feeding right now.
• Very high freight prices. Moving hay long distances is expensive, which slows trade between surplus and deficit regions.
• Ex-farm prices are still adjusting. Tim believes the ex-farm price has still probably got some way to adjust.

As these settle over the next couple of months, the market team expects hay trade to pick up significantly, especially if El Niño develops as predicted.

How fast supply can disappear

This is the most important part of the story. LocalAg and Feed Central listing data from early 2024 to mid-2026 shows just how quickly hay stocks can vanish.

Just on a year ago, stocks in our system were down to about 20,000 tonnes. Hay was being brought in from Western Australia by road and rail, and the country was on the edge of a hay crisis. After a big harvest last spring and summer, volumes rebuilt quickly and are still at fairly historic highs, even after selling down over winter.

The longer-term pattern tells the same story. Stocks built up after the 2018–20 drought, fell sharply to near-crisis levels in 2023, rebuilt, then were all but exhausted across the East Coast before mid-2025. When the season turns, carryover hay can disappear in months.

Price outlook: what to expect

Here’s the market team’s view on prices:

• Now to Christmas: as new-season hay comes in, supply will increase, and prices are likely to come back a little.
• Autumn 2027: if El Niño continues as predicted, demand for hay across the East Coast is expected to be very large.
• Winter 2027: prices are expected to rise significantly.

What this means for buyers

The window to lock in quality hay is from now through summer, as the new season comes off and before autumn demand hits. A few tips:

• Buy on quality, not just price. Ask for a feed test and photos, especially this season when weather damage is a risk.
• Check bale weights. Heavier, well-made bales mean more feed per truckload and a lower freight cost per tonne. See our guide on why bale weight matters.
• Compare delivered prices. Freight can make or break a deal, so understand the fuel levy surcharge before you commit.
• Consider a forward contract to secure supply ahead of autumn.
• Can’t find what you need? Post a free Wanted Ad and let sellers come to you.

What this means for sellers

Tim’s advice is simple: make hay, because the El Niño is here and every bale will be needed. Focus on quality, get it under cover, and keep your listings up to date so our team can market it for you. Read more in Make Hay While the Season Lasts.

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